Studying Abroad in the United States Under Trump 2.0
There is no doubt that the new Trump administration has created uncertainty across the board that impacts just about every facet of life. Education and study abroad for international students is no different. While no one can predict what Trump 2.0 will bring, we can glean a great deal of insight about where international students stand by looking through the transactional lens Trump often employs.
The Economy of Education – According to the Open Doors Report, there are more than 1.1 million students studying in the United States, which is a record high. It represents 5.9% of total student enrollment in the US, contributing nearly $44 billion to the economy and supporting 378,000 jobs. That is a lot of money, and it is spread across a lot of states, including many that voted for Trump. For anyone this is a good deal and Trump has often said that he loves that students are coming here to study. To top it up, none of Trump’s constituency really cares about this subject. No problem to solve here.
‘Tech Bros’ Business Focus – In the past, Trump has had issues with Silicon Valley and H-1B visas. This term he has totally reversed his course, bringing the likes of Elon Musk and many other tech stalwarts and entrepreneurs into his circle who have his ear. While there has been some tension between MAGA die-hards and this new cadre of friends, it is clear Trump sees international talent adding to the economy and loves the showy appeal of the sector. From his ideas around Gold Cards to his comments about graduating talent creating jobs and adding to the economy, this new love affair will likely last.
Direct University Impact – Universities are run by states or privately, not by the federal government. While the data is a bit old, 2018 numbers from Datalab, operated under the US Department of Treasury, reports that the US federal government spent $149 billion supporting universities. While that is a significant number, dig deeper and you see 65% of that money is in the form of scholarships, work-study and loans for attending students. It also represents only 14% of university revenue. The leverage he has through direct payments to universities isn’t going to make them jump through hoops.
Trump is looking at the Department of Education and will likely make severe policy changes resulting in funding cuts. While this might pinch the budgets, it won’t break universities. If anything, universities will look to plug funding gaps with international students that pay out-of-state tuition rates. If Trump tries policy changes to eliminate DEI programs and make universities “More American,” universities are independent and insulated from such policy agendas. It would take a lot of time, involve the courts, require a bureaucracy to force compliance, and even then, it would take a long time to make an impact. None of that fits how Trump makes headlines.
Pay to Play – Trump sees himself as the ‘Dealmaker-in-Chief.’ When he talks about illegal immigration, his economic argument is that they take away jobs, decrease wages, and leach off American social systems. In short, they cost taxpayers’ money. As you can see from the numbers above, international students bring in money and talent. Investing in the system and then contributing to the system is the kind of deal Trump likes. It doesn’t play to his immigration narrative nor his bottom line.
Future after Graduation for International Studies – Trump sent a lot of people packing during his first term in office. He tried to kill the H-1B program and was keen on legislative language dropping F1 OPT. Even after changes to the law failed, rejection of H-1B visas reached an all-time high. Much of the team that pushed this agenda were ‘old-school’ Republicans. No such people are at the fore of his new team. With his new found love for big-tech, he is less likely to listen to the old guard and throw out a vital avenue of talent.,
While there is a lot of shifting sand under Trump 2.0, none of it looks set to muck up the gears of international students looking to study on US shores. Yes, there will be headlines, and geopolitical tension might impact those who want to study abroad in the United States. But if you look beyond the bluster and weigh the risk versus return, studying in the US still looks like a good bet and better investment.
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About The Author
Sheldon Wallbrown
Creative Aspirations, Head of Admissions & University Relations Sheldon have over two decades working in education in both the United States and India. He has worked with hundreds of students find the educational opportunities that are right for them.